Some wait for football season in the Fall while others
anticipate baseball season in the Spring. Some sports fans are disappointed
that basketball season just ended. But those in the insurance industry often
anxiously anticipate the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
June 1 kicked off the official start of the Atlantic
Hurricane Season, which incorporates property located in the North Atlantic,
Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. The season officially runs through November
30, but does not always abide by the parameters of the season’s timeline. For
example, the first Named Storm of the season came early – Tropical Storm Arlene
developed on April 20 in the central Atlantic region.
Like sports, the Hurricane Season has forecasters who
provide watchers with guidance on what to expect this year. On May 25, 2017,
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a press release outlining its 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook. The NOAA
predicts that there will be 11-17 Named Storms and 5-9 Hurricanes –
categorizing 2-4 as “major”. Named Storms are defined as having top winds of 39
mph or higher. A Hurricane has top winds of 74 mph or higher. And a Major
Hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
If the NOAA’s forecast is accurate, there will likely be
at least 3-4 storms that will impact insured property. Hurricanes and Tropical
Storms pose significant property risks – both direct and indirect. For example,
high winds associated with these storms wreak havoc on roofing systems and
windows, and cause damage from blown debris. The storms may stall over an area,
unleashing downpours of rain and leave water with no place to go except into an
insured building. And storm surge has proven to be a significant risk to
property. The waves and water from a storm surge can level homes and, in
extreme circumstances, reach further inland than anticipated or protected
against. The over-all effect of these storms can damage local economies, affect
power to neighborhoods and cities, and cause business interruption losses.
The question, therefore, is whether the NOAA’s forecast is
reliable. Based on the last five years, the answer is yes. Below is a chart
that compares the NOAA’s forecast with the season results:
|
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Total Named Storms
|
9-15
|
|
|
Tropical Storms
|
|
9
|
|
Hurricanes
|
4-8
|
10
|
|
Major Hurricanes
|
1-3
|
2
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Total Named Storms
|
13-20
|
|
|
Tropical Storms
|
|
11
|
|
Hurricanes
|
7-11
|
2
|
|
Major Hurricanes
|
3-6
|
0
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Total Named Storms
|
8-13
|
|
|
Tropical Storms
|
|
2
|
|
Hurricanes
|
3-6
|
6
|
|
Major Hurricanes
|
1-2
|
2
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Total Named Storms
|
6-11
|
|
|
Tropical Storms
|
|
8
|
|
Hurricanes
|
3-6
|
4
|
|
Major Hurricanes
|
0-2
|
2
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Actual
|
|
Total Named Storms
|
10-16
|
|
|
Tropical Storms
|
|
9
|
|
Hurricanes
|
4-8
|
7
|
|
Major Hurricanes
|
1-4
|
4
|
With the exception of 2013, the NOAA’s predictions have been relatively accurate. Therefore, Hurricane Watchers should be prepared for over 10 Tropical Storms and a potentially large number of Hurricanes during this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Posted by Shannon O'Malley
