As the saying goes, “close only counts in
horseshoes and hand grenades.” And maybe hurricanes? Was Hurricane
Matthew a bullet that was dodged, or a bullet that hit the mark? That
depends on who you are and where you were.
There was a moment there when it looked like the State of Florida
was staring down the proverbial barrel of a colossal disaster. Hurricane
Matthew, then a category 4 Hurricane, had devastated Haiti and was making way
for South Florida. The predicted track had Matthew making landfall
somewhere along Florida’s Atlantic Coast, tearing along the eastern border for
hours and hours, and then pummeling Georgia and South Carolina before making a
bizarre eastward/southward loop and slamming back into Florida a second
time. (What kind of hurricane does that? It almost looked
personal.)
But in the merciful end, two important things did not happen. Matthew did not make landfall in Florida – which kept the most powerful winds off-shore and away from homes and businesses – and it never made the arcing loop that would have carried it back to the Florida coast for a second round of damage. But Matthew was nonetheless a powerful storm that did its share of harm, including multiple fatalities in the U.S. and an astounding death toll in Haiti. How you view Matthew, then, is largely dependent on who you are and what you were expecting. Were you a Miami homeowner hoping for the best, and the storm spun east and did most of its damage north of you? Are you a Jacksonville shop owner whose business was flooded and ruined? Are you an insurer with concentrated exposures along the coastline? Did you dodge a bullet, or do you feel like you took a direct hit? It depends, but the early estimates suggest there is plenty of damage to go around thanks to Matthew – billions of dollars, in fact, on top of the human toll.
CoreLogic reports that the total insured losses for residential and commercial
properties hit by Matthew will ultimately range from $4 billion to $6 billion,
exclusive of business interruption losses or contents damages. CoreLogic
estimates that 90% of those losses will be “related to wind” and 10% to storm
surge – numbers that seem surprising based on the storm’s track and other news
reports of heavy flood damage and relatively less catastrophic wind
impacts. At $4 billion to $6 billion in insured property loss, Matthew
would be dwarfed by Hurricane Katrina and Super Storm Sandy, but would still
rank among the most devastating property damage storms in U.S. history.
Lucky or unlucky? It’s in the eyes of the beholder.
Posted by Dan Millea
