The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
categorized Lidia as a “tropical storm”, pursuant to its tropical
cyclone definition of
having maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average)
ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr. Despite the tropical storm
categorization, Lidia threatens a critical piece of Mexico’s hospitality
industry, which has represented at least 9% of Mexico’s gross domestic product since
2013.
NOAA has forecasted the probable path of the storm center showing a 3-day trajectory to the Northwest, passing over Baja
California, the California Gulf, Sinaloa and Sonora. The most immediate threat
is to the world-renowned tourist destinations “Cabo San Lucas” and “San Jose
del Cabo”, two vacation localities situated in the Municipality of “Los Cabos” (“The Capes”) on the southern tip of the State of Baja California
Sur.
Last year, this area fell victim to the ravages of
Hurricane Newton. Newton took a similar
path along the west coast of Mexico, and developed into a hurricane before making
landfall in Baja California. Reportedly, Newton caused five direct deaths, and with
heavy rainfall and flooding, the preceding tropical cyclone caused an
additional four. According to a NOAA report,
damages to Baja California Sur were estimated at about USD$37 Million. Additionally, damages to the municipality of
Guaymas in the State of Sonora were estimated at USD$58 Million. This recent memory of property damage figures
heightens concerns of the potential costs of Tropical Storm Lidia.
A major concern when considering possible damages is the
important contribution that the Mexican West coast makes to Mexico’s
world-class hospitality industry. According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (see UNWTO’s
2016 report, page 6), Mexico ranks 9th in the world for
international tourist arrivals, totaling 32.1 Million people in 2015.
This means infrastructure. In Mexico’s case, there should
be special concern that a storm could potentially affect high-end beach resorts
and hotels along the coast where Tropical Storm Lidia is predicted to hit. According
to the statistics provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Tourism, preliminary estimates for
the year 2015 in Baja California totaled 1,065 lodging establishments with an
offering of 50,179 rooms. Other areas in the predicted path of Tropical Storm Lidia
include Sinaloa, which adds 466 establishments and 20,942 rooms, and Sonora
with 518 establishments and 22,358 rooms. Overall, a total of 2,000 tourist-lodging
establishments containing more than 90,000 rooms for occupancy are exposed to
the storm.
Per current predictions, Lidia is not expected to develop
into a hurricane. Nonetheless, strong winds are not the sole concern when it
comes to possible property damage and business interruption. A tropical storm
can deliver a secondary punch in terms of rainfall, which leads to flooding. According to
NOAA, 75% of all Presidential disaster declarations are associated with flooding.
The peak of hurricane season has proven to be active. Preparation and acknowledgement of potential
exposure is a critical component of this year’s storm activity. We hope the best for those areas directly
affected by these weather events, and stand ready to assist with any issues in
the wake of the storm.
*Not licensed to practice law in Florida
